An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance

Spectroscopic Mass and Host-star Metallicity Measurements for Newly Discovered Microlensing Planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb

We report the discovery of the microlensing planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb. The planet is detected with a very strong signal of $\Delta\chi^2\sim 4630$, but the interpretation of the signal suffers from two types of degeneracies. One type is caused by the previously known close/wide degeneracy, and the other is caused by an ambiguity between two solutions, in which one solution requires to incorporate finite-source effects, while the other solution is consistent with a point-source interpretation. Although difficult to be firmly resolved based on only the photometric data, the degeneracy is resolved in strong favor of the point-source solution with the additional external information obtained from astrometric and spectroscopic observations. The small astrometric offset between the source and baseline object supports that the blend is the lens and this interpretation is further secured by the consistency of the spectroscopic distance estimate of the blend with the lensing parameters of the point-source solution. The estimated mass of the host is $1.0\pm 0.1~M_\odot$ and the mass of the planet is $4.5\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (close solution) or $4.8\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (wide solution) and the lens is located at a distance of $3.2\pm 0.5$~kpc. The bright nature of the lens, with $I\sim 17.1$ ($V\sim 18.2$), combined with its dominance of the observed flux suggest that radial-velocity (RV) follow-up observations of the lens can be done using high-resolution spectrometers mounted on large telescopes, e.g., VLT/ESPRESSO, and this can potentially not only measure the period and eccentricity of the planet but also probe for close-in planets. We estimate that the expected RV amplitude would be $\sim 60\sin i ~{\rm m~s}^{-1}$.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, 4 table

OGLE-2018-BLG-0022: First Prediction of an Astrometric Microlensing Signal from a Photometric Microlensing Event

In this work, we present the analysis of the binary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0022 that is detected toward the Galactic bulge field. The dense and continuous coverage with the high-quality photometry data from ground-based observations combined with the space-based {\it Spitzer} observations of this long time-scale event enables us to uniquely determine the masses $M_1=0.40 \pm 0.05~M_\odot$ and $M_2=0.13\pm 0.01~M_\odot$ of the individual lens components. Because the lens-source relative parallax and the vector lens-source relative proper motion are unambiguously determined, we can likewise unambiguously predict the astrometric offset between the light centroid of the magnified images (as observed by the {\it Gaia} satellite) and the true position of the source. This prediction can be tested when the individual-epoch {\it Gaia} astrometric measurements are released.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, 4 table

Atrasentan and renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (SONAR): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Short-term treatment for people with type 2 diabetes using a low dose of the selective endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan reduces albuminuria without causing significant sodium retention. We report the long-term effects of treatment with atrasentan on major renal outcomes. Methods: We did this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial at 689 sites in 41 countries. We enrolled adults aged 18–85 years with type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)25–75 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 of body surface area, and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)of 300–5000 mg/g who had received maximum labelled or tolerated renin–angiotensin system inhibition for at least 4 weeks. Participants were given atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily during an enrichment period before random group assignment. Those with a UACR decrease of at least 30% with no substantial fluid retention during the enrichment period (responders)were included in the double-blind treatment period. Responders were randomly assigned to receive either atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily or placebo. All patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine (sustained for ≥30 days)or end-stage kidney disease (eGFR <15 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 sustained for ≥90 days, chronic dialysis for ≥90 days, kidney transplantation, or death from kidney failure)in the intention-to-treat population of all responders. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of their assigned study treatment. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01858532. Findings: Between May 17, 2013, and July 13, 2017, 11 087 patients were screened; 5117 entered the enrichment period, and 4711 completed the enrichment period. Of these, 2648 patients were responders and were randomly assigned to the atrasentan group (n=1325)or placebo group (n=1323). Median follow-up was 2·2 years (IQR 1·4–2·9). 79 (6·0%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 105 (7·9%)of 1323 in the placebo group had a primary composite renal endpoint event (hazard ratio [HR]0·65 [95% CI 0·49–0·88]; p=0·0047). Fluid retention and anaemia adverse events, which have been previously attributed to endothelin receptor antagonists, were more frequent in the atrasentan group than in the placebo group. Hospital admission for heart failure occurred in 47 (3·5%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 34 (2·6%)of 1323 patients in the placebo group (HR 1·33 [95% CI 0·85–2·07]; p=0·208). 58 (4·4%)patients in the atrasentan group and 52 (3·9%)in the placebo group died (HR 1·09 [95% CI 0·75–1·59]; p=0·65). Interpretation: Atrasentan reduced the risk of renal events in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease who were selected to optimise efficacy and safety. These data support a potential role for selective endothelin receptor antagonists in protecting renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of developing end-stage kidney disease. Funding: AbbVie

Shipping line dominance and freight rate practices on trade routes : the case of the Far East-South Africa trade

This paper examines the issue of shipping line dominance, taking the Far East-South Africa trade as an example. This study has two objectives: first, to collect sea freight rates for trades in relation to South Africa (SA) so as to understand general trends in price setting by shipping lines and ship capacities on the SA routes; and second, to examine whether evidence can be found on the potential dominance of shipping lines on the SA trading routes from the Far East (FE). To achieve these two goals, this study collected freight rates from major shipping lines serving the routes of major Asian ports to SA ports and comparing the operating costs between different shipping lines by way of analysing the capacity and types of container ships deployed on FE-SA trade routes

Sustainability Challenges in Maritime Transport and Logistics Industry and Its Way Ahead

Sustainability issues in the field of shipping, port and maritime logistics, commonly known as the maritime transport and logistics industry, have historically received less stakeholder attention as compared to aviation and overland freight sectors. However, as International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on ships and port/city interaction has increased since 1997, the stakeholders in the industry have gradually started paying attention to sustainability issues, across all the sectors, such as, aviation, land transport, and supply chain. As a result, the industry has accumulated a significant body of academic research outcomes over the last two decades. This Special Issue aims to examine the various themes in recent sustainability studies, particularly relating to shipping, port, and maritime logistics, and identify and discuss the key topics emerging in sustainability in the industry. It will contribute to increasing industry stakeholders&rsquo; understanding of the current situation in sustainability, assist them in the design of appropriate managerial insights and help them develop appropriate sustainability policies for the industry

Analyzing Interactions between Japanese Ports and the Maritime Silk Road Based on Complex Networks

This article considers how the Japanese ports interact with the ports of China and along the 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) while they are embedded in the global port network, especially in the context of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. At a port level, it primarily uses connectivity analysis to analyze the port relations and significances in the maritime network. In contrast, at the network level, it applies the methods from network sciences to analyze the significances of these maritime networks and the interactions among the maritime networks of Japan, China, and MSR. This article extracts a large-scale maritime network from ports and vessels’ profiles and data of vessels’ Automatic Identification System (AIS). It then examines the relations among the networks (including Japan, China, MSR, and global ports) after defining the maritime networks, network generation schemes, and port network analysis tools. Based on the analysis results and findings, this study draws some implications for regional ports and shipping development and the global supply network